Upstart Holdings, Inc (UPST)
Red 📈 GrowthFinancials · As of 17 July 2026
Price chart — 52 weeks
OakBag’s model puts the fair value of Upstart Holdings, Inc (UPST) at about $15.29, against a recent price of $29.51 — a margin of safety of -93%. On that basis the traffic light is set so it looks expensive or risky. The estimate blends up to 2 independent valuation methods and is benchmarked against other Financials names. It is a model estimate for research, not a price target or a recommendation.
Fair value vs. price
- Current price
- $29.51
- Estimated fair value
- $15.29
- Margin of safety
- -93%
- Growth fair value
- $36.98
- Margin of safety (growth)
- +20%
How the fair value is built
A balance-sheet business: valued on earnings and book value (cash-flow and EV/EBITDA don’t apply to banks and insurers).
Why not green?
- It looks cheap largely because of its high quality. Stripping the quality premium out, the margin of safety is only -70% — below the buy bar (quality is already rewarded in the score).
Knock-out safety checks passed
- Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z″)
- Negative equity
- Excessive leverage
- Illiquid
- Penny / micro-cap
- Stale fundamentals
- Piotroski F-score
- 4 / 9
- Beneish M-score
- -1.60
Quality & factor profile
Retail attention
- Attention
- 23 / 100
- Mentions today
- 1
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Frequently asked questions
Is Upstart (UPST) undervalued?
On OakBag’s model, Upstart Holdings, Inc looks expensive or risky: the estimated fair value is $15.29 versus a recent price of $29.51, a margin of safety of -93%. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
What is UPST’s fair value estimate?
OakBag estimates Upstart Holdings, Inc’s fair value at about $15.29, blending up to 2 methods — peer P/E, price-to-book, peer EV/EBITDA, a machine-learning valuation and a cash-flow DCF — clipped to a sensible band and taken at the median.
What is margin of safety?
Margin of safety is how far below the estimated fair value the price sits: (fair value − price) ÷ fair value. Here it is -93%. A positive number means the model sees the stock as cheap; OakBag only turns a stock green above +15%.
Does a green verdict mean I should buy UPST?
No. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. The traffic light is an automated model output based on third-party data that may be delayed or inaccurate. Always do your own research.
Other Financials stocks
An educational and research tool — not investment advice. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. Scores and rankings are automated model outputs based on third-party data and may be inaccurate or delayed. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.