MELI · 1,813.91 (last weekly close)■ SMA 10w■ SMA 40w
Weekly candles over the last 52 weeks, split-adjusted, with 10- and 40-week moving averages; trading volume along the bottom. As of Jul 13, 2026.
OakBag’s model puts the fair value of Mercadolibre Inc (MELI) at about $1,321.19, against a recent price of $1,813.91 — a margin of safety of -37%. On that basis the traffic light is set so it looks expensive or risky. The estimate blends up to 3 independent valuation methods and is benchmarked against other Consumer Discretionary names. It is a model estimate for research, not a price target or a recommendation.
It looks cheap largely because of its high quality. Stripping the quality premium out, the margin of safety is only -69% — below the buy bar (quality is already rewarded in the score).
Knock-out safety checks passed
✓ Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z″)
✓ Negative equity
✓ Excessive leverage
✓ Illiquid
✓ Penny / micro-cap
✓ Stale fundamentals
Piotroski F-score
5 / 9
Altman Z-score
5.05
Beneish M-score
-3.10
Quality & factor profile
Value-0.24
Quality+0.55
Profitability+0.15
Momentum-0.85
Growth+2.25
Low volatility+0.13
Retail attention
Attention
60 / 100
Mentions today
1
Vs. typical level
-0.3σ
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On OakBag’s model, Mercadolibre Inc looks expensive or risky: the estimated fair value is $1,321.19 versus a recent price of $1,813.91, a margin of safety of -37%. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
What is MELI’s fair value estimate?
OakBag estimates Mercadolibre Inc’s fair value at about $1,321.19, blending up to 3 methods — peer P/E, price-to-book, peer EV/EBITDA, a machine-learning valuation and a cash-flow DCF — clipped to a sensible band and taken at the median.
What is margin of safety?
Margin of safety is how far below the estimated fair value the price sits: (fair value − price) ÷ fair value. Here it is -37%. A positive number means the model sees the stock as cheap; OakBag only turns a stock green above +15%.
Does a green verdict mean I should buy MELI?
No. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. The traffic light is an automated model output based on third-party data that may be delayed or inaccurate. Always do your own research.
An educational and research tool — not investment advice. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. Scores and rankings are automated model outputs based on third-party data and may be inaccurate or delayed. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.