Lemonade, Inc (LMND)
RedFinancials · As of 17 July 2026
Price chart — 52 weeks
OakBag’s model puts the fair value of Lemonade, Inc (LMND) at about $30.23, against a recent price of $67.18 — a margin of safety of ≤ -122%. On that basis the traffic light is set so it looks expensive or risky. The estimate blends up to 1 independent valuation methods and is benchmarked against other Financials names. It is a model estimate for research, not a price target or a recommendation.
Fair value vs. price
- Current price
- $67.18
- Estimated fair value
- $30.23
- Margin of safety
- ≤ -122%
How the fair value is built
A balance-sheet business: valued on earnings and book value (cash-flow and EV/EBITDA don’t apply to banks and insurers).
Why not green?
- Every valuation method came in far below the price and was raised to the model's outlier floor — the fair value shown is that floor, and the model's true estimate is even lower. Read the margin of safety as “−122% or worse”.
- Only one valuation method applies to this business — too thin to flag as a buy on its own.
Knock-out safety checks passed
- Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z″)
- Negative equity
- Excessive leverage
- Illiquid
- Penny / micro-cap
- Stale fundamentals
- Piotroski F-score
- 3 / 9
- Beneish M-score
- -2.46
Quality & factor profile
See the full analysis
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Frequently asked questions
Is Lemonade (LMND) undervalued?
On OakBag’s model, Lemonade, Inc looks expensive or risky: the estimated fair value is $30.23 versus a recent price of $67.18, a margin of safety of ≤ -122%. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
What is LMND’s fair value estimate?
OakBag estimates Lemonade, Inc’s fair value at about $30.23, blending up to 1 methods — peer P/E, price-to-book, peer EV/EBITDA, a machine-learning valuation and a cash-flow DCF — clipped to a sensible band and taken at the median.
What is margin of safety?
Margin of safety is how far below the estimated fair value the price sits: (fair value − price) ÷ fair value. Here it is ≤ -122%. A positive number means the model sees the stock as cheap; OakBag only turns a stock green above +15%.
Does a green verdict mean I should buy LMND?
No. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. The traffic light is an automated model output based on third-party data that may be delayed or inaccurate. Always do your own research.
Other Financials stocks
An educational and research tool — not investment advice. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. Scores and rankings are automated model outputs based on third-party data and may be inaccurate or delayed. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.