Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)
OrangeConsumer Discretionary · As of 17 July 2026
Price chart — 52 weeks
OakBag’s model puts the fair value of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) at about $31.49, against a recent price of $34.44 — a margin of safety of -9%. On that basis the traffic light is set so it looks fairly valued. The estimate blends up to 4 independent valuation methods and is benchmarked against other Consumer Discretionary names. It is a model estimate for research, not a price target or a recommendation.
Fair value vs. price
- Current price
- $34.44
- Estimated fair value
- $31.49
- Margin of safety
- -9%
How the fair value is built
Why not green?
- It looks cheap largely because of its high quality. Stripping the quality premium out, the margin of safety is only -30% — below the buy bar (quality is already rewarded in the score).
Knock-out safety checks passed
- Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z″)
- Negative equity
- Excessive leverage
- Illiquid
- Penny / micro-cap
- Stale fundamentals
- Piotroski F-score
- 6 / 9
- Altman Z-score
- 5.11
- Beneish M-score
- -2.88
Quality & factor profile
Retail attention
- Attention
- 75 / 100
- Mentions today
- 1
- Spike vs. 24h ago
- 1×
- Vs. typical level
- -0.4σ
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Frequently asked questions
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) undervalued?
On OakBag’s model, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc looks fairly valued: the estimated fair value is $31.49 versus a recent price of $34.44, a margin of safety of -9%. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
What is CMG’s fair value estimate?
OakBag estimates Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc’s fair value at about $31.49, blending up to 4 methods — peer P/E, price-to-book, peer EV/EBITDA, a machine-learning valuation and a cash-flow DCF — clipped to a sensible band and taken at the median.
What is margin of safety?
Margin of safety is how far below the estimated fair value the price sits: (fair value − price) ÷ fair value. Here it is -9%. A positive number means the model sees the stock as cheap; OakBag only turns a stock green above +15%.
Does a green verdict mean I should buy CMG?
No. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. The traffic light is an automated model output based on third-party data that may be delayed or inaccurate. Always do your own research.
Other Consumer Discretionary stocks
An educational and research tool — not investment advice. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. Scores and rankings are automated model outputs based on third-party data and may be inaccurate or delayed. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.