Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN)
Red 📈 GrowthConsumer Discretionary · As of 17 July 2026
Price chart — 52 weeks
OakBag’s model puts the fair value of Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) at about $122.51, against a recent price of $83.95 — a margin of safety of +31%. On that basis the traffic light is set so it looks expensive or risky. The estimate blends up to 3 independent valuation methods and is benchmarked against other Consumer Discretionary names. It is a model estimate for research, not a price target or a recommendation.
Fair value vs. price
- Current price
- $83.95
- Estimated fair value
- $122.51
- Margin of safety
- +31%
- Growth fair value
- $276.77
- Margin of safety (growth)
- +70%
How the fair value is built
Knock-out safety checks failed
- Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z″)
- Negative equity
- Excessive leverage
- Illiquid
- Penny / micro-cap
- Stale fundamentals
- Piotroski F-score
- 6 / 9
- Altman Z-score
- 4.19
- Beneish M-score
- -2.40
Quality & factor profile
See the full analysis
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Frequently asked questions
Is Churchill Downs (CHDN) undervalued?
On OakBag’s model, Churchill Downs Inc looks expensive or risky: the estimated fair value is $122.51 versus a recent price of $83.95, a margin of safety of +31%. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
What is CHDN’s fair value estimate?
OakBag estimates Churchill Downs Inc’s fair value at about $122.51, blending up to 3 methods — peer P/E, price-to-book, peer EV/EBITDA, a machine-learning valuation and a cash-flow DCF — clipped to a sensible band and taken at the median.
What is margin of safety?
Margin of safety is how far below the estimated fair value the price sits: (fair value − price) ÷ fair value. Here it is +31%. A positive number means the model sees the stock as cheap; OakBag only turns a stock green above +15%.
Does a green verdict mean I should buy CHDN?
No. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. The traffic light is an automated model output based on third-party data that may be delayed or inaccurate. Always do your own research.
Other Consumer Discretionary stocks
An educational and research tool — not investment advice. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. Scores and rankings are automated model outputs based on third-party data and may be inaccurate or delayed. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.