Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)
OrangeFinancials · As of 17 July 2026
Price chart — 52 weeks
OakBag’s model puts the fair value of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) at about $186.91, against a recent price of $84.96 — a margin of safety of ≥ +55%. On that basis the traffic light is set so it looks fairly valued. The estimate blends up to 2 independent valuation methods and is benchmarked against other Financials names. It is a model estimate for research, not a price target or a recommendation.
Fair value vs. price
- Current price
- $84.96
- Estimated fair value
- $186.91
- Margin of safety
- ≥ +55%
How the fair value is built
A balance-sheet business: valued on earnings and book value (cash-flow and EV/EBITDA don’t apply to banks and insurers).
Why not green?
- Every valuation method came in far above the price and was capped by the model's outlier guard — with no independent method confirming it, the discount isn't trusted.
Knock-out safety checks passed
- Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z″)
- Negative equity
- Excessive leverage
- Illiquid
- Penny / micro-cap
- Stale fundamentals
- Piotroski F-score
- 6 / 9
- Beneish M-score
- -2.15
Quality & factor profile
Retail attention
- Attention
- 24 / 100
- Mentions today
- 1
- Spike vs. 24h ago
- 1×
See the full analysis
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Frequently asked questions
Is Assured Guaranty (AGO) undervalued?
On OakBag’s model, Assured Guaranty Ltd looks fairly valued: the estimated fair value is $186.91 versus a recent price of $84.96, a margin of safety of ≥ +55%. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
What is AGO’s fair value estimate?
OakBag estimates Assured Guaranty Ltd’s fair value at about $186.91, blending up to 2 methods — peer P/E, price-to-book, peer EV/EBITDA, a machine-learning valuation and a cash-flow DCF — clipped to a sensible band and taken at the median.
What is margin of safety?
Margin of safety is how far below the estimated fair value the price sits: (fair value − price) ÷ fair value. Here it is ≥ +55%. A positive number means the model sees the stock as cheap; OakBag only turns a stock green above +15%.
Does a green verdict mean I should buy AGO?
No. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. The traffic light is an automated model output based on third-party data that may be delayed or inaccurate. Always do your own research.
Other Financials stocks
An educational and research tool — not investment advice. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. Scores and rankings are automated model outputs based on third-party data and may be inaccurate or delayed. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.