Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)
RedConsumer Discretionary · As of 17 July 2026
Price chart — 52 weeks
OakBag’s model puts the fair value of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) at about $23.92, against a recent price of $53.16 — a margin of safety of ≤ -122%. On that basis the traffic light is set so it looks expensive or risky. The estimate blends up to 1 independent valuation methods and is benchmarked against other Consumer Discretionary names. It is a model estimate for research, not a price target or a recommendation.
Fair value vs. price
- Current price
- $53.16
- Estimated fair value
- $23.92
- Margin of safety
- ≤ -122%
How the fair value is built
Why not green?
- The company is running an operating loss, so the screen will not flag a money-losing business as a buy.
- Every valuation method came in far below the price and was raised to the model's outlier floor — the fair value shown is that floor, and the model's true estimate is even lower. Read the margin of safety as “−122% or worse”.
- Only one valuation method applies to this business — too thin to flag as a buy on its own.
Knock-out safety checks passed
- Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z″)
- Negative equity
- Excessive leverage
- Illiquid
- Penny / micro-cap
- Stale fundamentals
- Piotroski F-score
- 5 / 9
- Altman Z-score
- 6.39
- Beneish M-score
- -2.75
Quality & factor profile
Retail attention
- Attention
- 77 / 100
- Mentions today
- 1
- Spike vs. 24h ago
- 1×
See the full analysis
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Frequently asked questions
Is Advance Auto Parts (AAP) undervalued?
On OakBag’s model, Advance Auto Parts Inc looks expensive or risky: the estimated fair value is $23.92 versus a recent price of $53.16, a margin of safety of ≤ -122%. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
What is AAP’s fair value estimate?
OakBag estimates Advance Auto Parts Inc’s fair value at about $23.92, blending up to 1 methods — peer P/E, price-to-book, peer EV/EBITDA, a machine-learning valuation and a cash-flow DCF — clipped to a sensible band and taken at the median.
What is margin of safety?
Margin of safety is how far below the estimated fair value the price sits: (fair value − price) ÷ fair value. Here it is ≤ -122%. A positive number means the model sees the stock as cheap; OakBag only turns a stock green above +15%.
Does a green verdict mean I should buy AAP?
No. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. The traffic light is an automated model output based on third-party data that may be delayed or inaccurate. Always do your own research.
Other Consumer Discretionary stocks
An educational and research tool — not investment advice. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. Scores and rankings are automated model outputs based on third-party data and may be inaccurate or delayed. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.