Alcoa Corp (AA)
GreenMaterials · As of 17 July 2026
Price chart — 52 weeks
OakBag’s model puts the fair value of Alcoa Corp (AA) at about $59.24, against a recent price of $44.43 — a margin of safety of +26%. On that basis the traffic light is set so it looks undervalued. The estimate blends up to 2 independent valuation methods and is benchmarked against other Materials names. It is a model estimate for research, not a price target or a recommendation.
Fair value vs. price
- Current price
- $44.43
- Estimated fair value
- $59.24
- Margin of safety
- +26%
How the fair value is built
Knock-out safety checks passed
- Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z″)
- Negative equity
- Excessive leverage
- Illiquid
- Penny / micro-cap
- Stale fundamentals
- Piotroski F-score
- 5 / 9
- Beneish M-score
- -2.38
Quality & factor profile
Retail attention
- Attention
- 43 / 100
- Mentions today
- 1
- Spike vs. 24h ago
- 1×
- Vs. typical level
- -0.4σ
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Frequently asked questions
Is Alcoa (AA) undervalued?
On OakBag’s model, Alcoa Corp looks undervalued: the estimated fair value is $59.24 versus a recent price of $44.43, a margin of safety of +26%. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
What is AA’s fair value estimate?
OakBag estimates Alcoa Corp’s fair value at about $59.24, blending up to 2 methods — peer P/E, price-to-book, peer EV/EBITDA, a machine-learning valuation and a cash-flow DCF — clipped to a sensible band and taken at the median.
What is margin of safety?
Margin of safety is how far below the estimated fair value the price sits: (fair value − price) ÷ fair value. Here it is +26%. A positive number means the model sees the stock as cheap; OakBag only turns a stock green above +15%.
Does a green verdict mean I should buy AA?
No. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. The traffic light is an automated model output based on third-party data that may be delayed or inaccurate. Always do your own research.
Other Materials stocks
An educational and research tool — not investment advice. OakBag is an educational and research tool, not investment advice. Scores and rankings are automated model outputs based on third-party data and may be inaccurate or delayed. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.